Bitcoin has shown resilience by moving above key demand levels, but the psychological and technical barrier of $100K has not been claimed. This resistance has left investors and analysts in a state of uncertainty, with no clear short-term direction for the market leader. Despite this, a growing consensus among market experts suggests that BTC will likely see a significant increase in the coming weeks.
Top analyst Axel Adler recently shared insightful data highlighting an interesting trend in BTC’s transaction activity. According to Adler, retail activity for transactions under $10K has fallen to its lowest level since the summer of 2021 — a period marked by widespread market panic following China’s mining ban. This decline in retail participation indicates that small investors are staying on the sidelines for the time being.
Adler suggests that this reduced retail presence could once again change dramatically Bitcoin reclaims higher levelsArousing new interest and participation of small investors. This pattern is consistent with historical cycles, where retail re-enters the market as prices begin to rise. With BTC hovering just below $100K, all eyes are on whether the bulls can break through and kickstart a new phase of the rally. The next few weeks could be crucial for Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Bitcoin consolidates and retail investors wait
Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase since November 22, when it first tested the $100K level. This important milestone initially brought a lot of optimism, but market sentiment quickly turned very cautious and even bearish. Since then, Bitcoin has struggled to regain its momentum, with price action limited below the psychological barrier of $100K.
A significant trend during this period is the cooling of retail activity. Top analyst Axel Adler recently X shared an analysisrevealing that retail transactions with amounts up to $10K are at their lowest level since the summer of 2021.
The period was marked by widespread market panic following China’s mining ban, a period when retail investors largely exited the market. Adler suggests that this current stagnation could be a precursor to new retail interest, which typically increases as BTC begins to rally.
Despite concerns about retail inactivity, many analysts remain optimistic about bitcoin’s prospects. The general consensus is that the market structure remains intact, and a breakout above $100K could catalyze a fresh wave of buying. However, there is still a risk if BTC fails to reclaim this key level, potentially leading to further declines and heightened uncertainty. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s next move.
BTC About To Break Above $100K?
Bitcoin is currently trading at $98,800 after tagging $99,857 a few hours ago. Price is testing the upper bound of a critical psychological level, flirting with a breakout above the much-anticipated $100K mark. Market participants are eagerly watching for a decisive move, as a break above this level is widely expected to trigger a huge price rally.
The $100K milestone is not only a psychological barrier, but also a key supply zone where selling pressure has historically limited rallies. However, Bitcoin’s continued push towards this level indicates growing bullishness. Analysts believe that if BTC manages to close above $100K and hold it as support, the market could enter a new phase of price discovery, with significant upside potential.
The anticipation surrounding this breakout is palpable as traders prepare for the possibility of increased volatility. On-chain metrics suggest that buying pressure continues to build, with the demand zone around $92K and $95K, acting as strong support during the recent consolidation. While the immediate focus is breaking the $100K barrier on Bitcoin, failure to do so could lead to a short-term pullback, potentially testing lower support levels before another attempt.
Featured images from Dall-E, charts from TradingView
