Bitcoin’s price rally from its new all-time high of $108,353 to around $96,000 (a -11.5% pullback) on Tuesday has fueled intense speculation about whether the current bull cycle is nearing its peak. To address the growing uncertainty, Raphael Schultz-Kroft, co-founder of on-chain analytics provider Glassnode, Released 18 A thread on X detailing on-chain metrics and models. “Where is Bitcoin Top?” Schultze-Kraft asked before launching into her detailed analysis.
Has Bitcoin reached the peak of its cycle?
1/ MVRV Ratio: A long-standing measure of abnormal profitability, MVRV ratio Compares market value with realized value. Historically, readings above 7 have indicated extremely warm conditions. “Currently hovering around 3 — room to grow,” Schultz-Crafts noted. This suggests that, in terms of gross unrealized profits, the market is still not at the levels that correspond to the earlier macro peak.
2/ MVRV Pricing Bands: These bands are derived from the number of days MVRV has spent at extreme levels. The top band (3.2) has historically been crossed for only 6% of trading days. Today, this top band corresponds to a price of $127,000. Given that Bitcoin sits around $98,000, the market has yet to reach the zone that historically marks top formations.
3/ Long-Term Holder Profits (Relative Realized Profit and LTH-NUPL): Long-term holders (LTHs) are considered more stable market participants. Their Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric currently stands at 0.75, which Schultze-Kraft refers to as the “euphoria zone.” He commented that in the 2021 cycle, Bitcoin ran another ~3x after hitting similar levels (although he clarified that he does not expect a repeat). Historical peak formations often saw LTH-NUPL readings above 0.9. Thus, while the metric has been raised, it has not yet reached the peak of the previous cycle.
In particular, Schultze-Kroft acknowledged that his observations may be conservative because the 2021 cycle was at somewhat lower profit values than previous cycles. “I would expect these profitability metrics to reach slightly higher levels,” he explained. This may indicate descending peaks on successive cycles. Investors should be aware that historical boundaries may become less clear over time.
4/ Annual Actual Profit/Loss Ratio: This metric measures the total realized profits relative to the losses incurred in the previous year. Previous cycle tops have seen values above 700%. Currently at around 580%, it still shows “room to grow” before reaching levels historically associated with market tops.
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5/ Market Cap to ThermoCap Ratio: An early on-chain metric, it compares Bitcoin’s total market capitalization to the cumulative mining cost (ThermoCap). In past bull runs, the ratio’s limits are associated with market tops. Schultze-Kraft advises caution with specific target ranges but notes that current levels are nowhere near past limits. The market remains below historical thermocap values indicating overheated conditions in the past.
6/ Thermocap Multiples (32-64x): Historically, Bitcoin has peaked at around 32-64 times the Thermocap. “We’re at the very bottom of that range,” Schultz-Kraft said. Hitting the top band in today’s environment means a Bitcoin market cap above $4 trillion. Considering that the current market capitalization ($1.924 trillion) is significantly lower, it suggests the potential for significant growth if the historical pattern were to hold.
7/ Investor Tool (2-year SMA x5): The Investor Tool applies a 2-year simple moving average (SMA) of price and a 5x multiple of that SMA to indicate potential top zones. “That currently represents $230,000,” Schultze-Kraft noted. Since the current price of Bitcoin is well below this level, the indicator has not yet signaled a clear top.
8/ Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT6): This model uses deviations from a 4-year moving average to capture cyclical price thresholds. Historically, BPT6 reached previous bull markets, and that band now sits at $151,000. With Bitcoin at $98,000, the market is still below levels associated with peak overheating.
9/ The True Market Mean & AVIV: The True Market Mean is an alternative cost basis model. Its MVRV-equivalent, known as AVIV, measures how far the market deviates from the mean. Historically, peaks have seen more than 3 standard deviations. Today’s equivalent is “quantity of values above ~2.3,” while the current reading is 1.7. “Room to grow,” Schultz-Kraft said, indicating that by this metric, the market has not yet expanded to its historical limits.
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10/ Low/Mid/Top Cap Models (Delta Cap Derivatives): These models, based on the Delta Cap metric, historically show declining values throughout the 2021 cycle, never reaching the ‘Top Cap’. Schultz-Kraft urges caution in interpreting these because of the evolution of market structure. Currently, the mid cap level sits at around $4 trillion, roughly 2x current levels. If the market follows the previous patterns, it will allow for a considerable increase before hitting the levels characteristic of the old tops.
11/ Value Days Destroyed Multiple (VDDM): This metric measures the spending behavior of long-held coins compared to annual averages. Historically, extreme values above 2.9 indicated that older coins were underperforming the market, often during late-stage bull markets. Currently, it is at 2.2, not yet at extreme levels. “Room to grow,” Schultz-Kraft noted, suggesting that not all long-term holders have fully surrendered to profit-taking.
12/ Mayor Multiple: The Mayor multiple Compares the price to the 200-day SMA. Overbought conditions in previous cycles consistent with values above 2.4. Currently, a Meyer multiple above 2.4 corresponds to a price of about $167,000. With Bitcoin under $100,000, this threshold remains distant.
13/ The Cycle Extremes Oscillator Chart: This composite uses multiple binary indicators (MVRV, aSOPR, Puell Multiple, Reserve Risk) to indicate cycle extremes. “Currently 2/4 are on,” meaning only half of the conditions tracked for an overheated market are met. The previous peak is aligned with the full suite of triggered signals. As such, the chart suggests that the cycle has not yet reached fully developed peak intensity.
14/ Pi cycle top indicator: A price-based signal that has historically identified cycle peaks by comparing short-term and long-term moving averages. “Currently the small moving average sits well below the large ($74k vs. $129k),” Schultze-Kraft said, indicating no crossover and thus no classic peak.
15/ Sell-Side Risk Ratio (LTH version): This ratio compares the total actual profit and loss with the actual market capitalization. High values are associated with volatile, late-stage bull markets. “The zone of interest is 0.8% and above, whereas we are currently at 0.46% – room to grow,” explained Schultze-Kraft. This means that, despite recent profit-taking, the market has not yet entered the intense selling pressure area often seen near tops.
16/ LTH Inflation Rate: Schultz-Kraft highlights the long-term holder inflation rate as “the most bearish chart ever.” Although he did not provide specific target values or thresholds in this passage, he said that “caution screams.” Investors should monitor this closely as it could signal increased distributions from long-term holdings or other structural headwinds.
17/ STH-SOPR (Expense Output Profit Ratio of Short-term Holders): This metric measures the profit-taking behavior of short-term holders. “Currently high, but not sustained,” Schulz-Kroft noted. In other words, while short-term participants are taking profits, the data does not yet indicate the type of sustained, aggressive profit-taking of a market top.
18/ SLRV Ribbon: These ribbons track trends in short- and long-term realized value. Historically, when both moving averages break out of and cross the top, this indicates a market turn. “Both moving averages are still rising, only bearish on rounded tops and crossovers. There is no sign of a peak at this point,” Schulz-Kroft said.
Overall, Schultze-Craft emphasized that these metrics should not be used in isolation. “Never rely on single data points – confluence is your friend,” he advises. He acknowledged that this is a non-exhaustive list and that bitcoin’s evolving ecosystem — now with ETFs, regulatory clarity, institutional adoption, and geopolitical factors — may make historical comparisons less reliable. “This cycle may look very different, yet the (historical) data is what we have,” he concluded.
While many metrics show the Bitcoin market moving into more prosperous and profitable territory, few have reached the historic highs that marked the top of the previous cycle. Indicators such as MVRV, profitability ratios, thermal metrics, and various price-based models generally suggest “room to grow,” although at least one-LTH inflation raises a note of caution. Some composites are only partially on, while classic top signals such as the Pi cycle top remain inactive.
At press time, BTC traded at $96,037.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
