Ethereum Takes Early Q1 Lead Showing Post-Half Strength – Will History Repeat?

After a lackluster 2024, Ethereum has started 2025 with a bang, gaining more than 13% since the start of the year. This impressive performance has revived optimism among investors who are anticipating a bullish year for ETH and the broader altcoin market. Ethereum’s early strength has raised the critical question: Can it overtake Bitcoin this year after the halving?

Top analyst Dan recently shared insightful data highlighting ETH’s early lead over BTC, driven by historical patterns of positive sentiment and strong seasonality. In his analysis, Dan pointed out that ETH often performs well during the first quarter, especially in post-half years, setting the stage for a potential altseason. This historical trend has many investors looking at ETH as a promising contender for market dominance in 2025.

While Bitcoin remains the market leaderEthereum’s early momentum could pave the way to challenge BTC’s dominance this year. A combination of favorable market conditions, improving sentiment, and Ethereum’s strong start suggest that the altcoin leader is poised to reclaim its status as a high-performing asset. As the market gears up for what could be a landmark year, all eyes are on ETH to see if it can maintain its momentum and overtake Bitcoin.

Ethereum shows strength but faces major challenges

Ethereum has entered the new year with a bang, sparking optimism among analysts and investors alike. However, for ETH to confirm a continued uptrend, it must reclaim and hold last year’s highs. Early signs are promising, with ETH showing a 13% gain since the start of the year. The post-half years have historically been favorable for altcoins, and 2025 appears to follow the trend.

Top analyst Dr Shared sensible data on XHighlighting Ethereum’s Strong Start Against Bitcoin He noted that ETH is taking an early lead against BTC, supported by positive sentiment and strong seasonal patterns. Historically, ETH has performed well in the first quarter of the post-Half years, setting the stage for a potential altseason. This historical context gives investors confidence that Ethereum can perform better in the coming months.

Ethereum returns compared to Bitcoin
Ethereum Returns Compared to Bitcoin | Source: X on donation

Dan emphasized that while Ethereum is gaining momentum, the race between ETH and BTC will be one to watch closely. He believes both properties will emerge as winners this year, each offering unique opportunities for development. For ETH, reclaiming key levels and maintaining its early momentum is critical to ensure it lives up to these lofty expectations.

The coming weeks will be important as ETH looks to capitalize on its early lead. With market conditions looking favorable and a history of strong first-quarter performance, Ethereum is potentially positioned very well for 2025. However, it will need to prove its flexibility to navigate market challenges and maintain a bullish outlook.

ETH test key support

Ethereum is currently trading at $3,636, testing the critical 4-hourly 200 moving average as support. This level is important in determining the next phase of ETH’s price action. If the price remains above this moving average in the coming hours, it could signal a strong base for a rebound towards higher supply zones, setting the stage for further bullish momentum.

ETH is testing the 4H 200 MA
ETH 4H Testing 200 MA | Source: ETHUSDT Chart on TradingView

However, a brief move into lower supply zones could still be a healthy move for ETH. If such a decline occurs, it is important that the price recovers quickly — ideally within a few days — to maintain the bullish outlook. A sustained decline could introduce uncertainty and test investor confidence in Ethereum’s upward trajectory.

To maintain the bullish trend, ETH should hold firmly above the $3,500 level. This mark acts as a critical support zone, and missing it will risk a deeper correction. On the other hand, reclaiming the $3,900 level is equally important, as it will strengthen the bullish structure and open the door for a major rally.

Featured images from Dall-E, charts from TradingView

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