Bitcoin Supply Held by STH Hits Highest Level in 40 Months – Peak Signal or Trend Shift?

Bitcoin finds itself at an important juncture as the market navigates uncertainty and growing doubt in the days ahead. After reaching the all-time high (ATH), the price quickly retreated to the $92,000 level, triggering a sentiment shift from extreme bullishness to cautious optimism. This rapid correction has many traders questioning the sustainability of Bitcoin’s recent rally and whether the market could be entering a new phase.

CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn recently highlighted compelling data that sheds light on the current state of the market. According to Martoon, the supply held by short-term holders (STH) has reached its highest level in 40 months. This is an important development, as elevated STH holdings are often associated with market tops or potential trend reversals.

If the price breaks above key support levels, it could signal a healthy recovery and pave the way for a new rally. However, the failure to regain momentum It could confirm the fears of many market participants, leading to deeper corrections and increased selling pressure. As Bitcoin hovers at this crossroads, all eyes are on the data and the market’s next move.

Uncertainty is driving the market

Since Bitcoin hit its all-time high (ATH) at $108,300, it has experienced significant volatility, increasing uncertainty within the market. Some analysts are convinced that the ATH represents the peak of the current bull cycle, and they do not see any further upside for BTC in the near term. On the other hand, there are those who believe that the bull run is far from over and that recent price fluctuations are part of a healthy market consolidation ahead of a potential rally.

Martun Recently shared data on X which provides important insight into the current state of the market. According to Martoon, the supply held by short-term holders (STH) has reached 5,439,700 BTC, the highest level in 40 months.

Bitcoin STH and LTH supply
Bitcoin STH and LTH Supply | Source: Martun and X

STH supply typically increases during bullish periods as short-term investors accumulate Bitcoin in anticipation of price gains. This sharp increase indicates that the multi-year decline in STH supply has come to an end, signaling a possible change in market dynamics.

For many analysts, this is a bullish sign, as it suggests that short-term holders are positioning themselves for further price appreciation. However, uncertainty remains, as the broader market is still facing periods of volatility, and BTC must break through key resistance levels to confirm that the rally is indeed sustainable. Data from Martoon points to the potential for continued bullish sentiment, but it’s clear that Bitcoin’s future direction is not yet set in stone.

BTC weekly close

Bitcoin is currently trading at $97,000 after days of intense volatility and uncertainty. As the weekly draws to a close, the $97K level has become crucial in determining the next direction of price action.

If Bitcoin manages to hold above this key level by the end of the week, it could signal confirmation of a bullish continuation, with a potentially massive rally on the horizon. The ability to maintain this support will likely fuel new buying pressure, pushing Bitcoin towards higher price targets.

BTC is about to close the week above $97K
About BTC Closes Week Above $97K | Source: BTCUSDT Chart on TradingView

On the other hand, if Bitcoin fails to hold above $97K and closes the week below this threshold, the market could face a deep correction. This could bring the price back to test lower demand zones, potentially creating further downside risk in the coming weeks.

The next few days are critical, as the weekly close could set the tone for Bitcoin’s near-term price action, with analysts closely monitoring whether this support level holds firm. As market sentiment remains uncertain, a decisive move above or below $97K will provide key insight into Bitcoin’s future direction.

Featured images from Dall-E, charts from TradingView

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