Bitcoin HODLer Supply Is Rising Again: But Is It Really Rising?

On-chain data shows that there has been a recent shift in Bitcoin long-term holder supply. Here history suggests it might make sense.

Bitcoin long-term supply may reach a low

In a new post On X, analyst James Van Straten talks about the latest trend in the supply of BTC long-term holders. “Long term holder” (LTHs) refers to investors who hold their coins for 155 days in advance.

LTHs form one of two main segments of the market based on holding time, the other side being known as “”.Short term holders” (STHs).

Historically, STHs have proven to engage the market’s fickle-minded hands who readily sell at the sight of any FUD or FOMO in the sector. On the other hand, LTHs have firm bodies that can prevent crashes and rallies alike.

That said, even these HODLers don’t sit tight forever, because they’re in it to eventually make some profit. One such episode of LTH selling occurred during the cryptocurrency’s recent all-time high, meaning the rally was great for advancing diamond hands.

There are many ways to track LTH behavior, with one method being to measure the combined amount of supply in the wallets of group members.

Below is the Glassnode chart for the metric shared by the analyst, which shows the trend in Bitcoin’s value over its history.

From the graph, it appears that the supply of Bitcoin LTH was declining during the last two months of 2024 as these investors took their profits from the rally, but recently, the indicator has shown a small change as the group The holding has increased. About 20,000 BTC.

This may suggest that the group’s supply has now bottomed out and reversed its trajectory. Historically, however, bottoms in the metric tend to be around peaks in the cryptocurrency’s price, meaning it may not be bullish for BTC.

However, not all of the bitcoin peaks coincided with the lows in LTH supply circular top. For example, the top in the first quarter of last year was also accompanied by a bottom in the indicator.

It just remains to be seen if the latest pattern in the indicator indicates that the most recent top was a cyclical one or if it was another local top on the way to the main top.