After a strong start to 2025, Bitcoin looks poised for significant volatility. However, questions remain about the overall health of the market and whether the current bullish momentum can be sustained in the coming weeks and months. Here, we’ll take an unbiased and data-driven look at the underlying numbers that support our current trend.
For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: Bitcoin data driven analysis and on-chain roundup
Minor recovery
Puel multipleA measure comparing miners’ daily USD revenue to annual averages suggests that Bitcoin’s fundamental network strength remains strong. Historically, after a halving event, miners experience a significant drop in income due to a 50% block reward reduction. However, the Puel multiple recently climbed above the key value of 1, indicating a recovery and a potentially bullish phase.
Past cycles show that crossing and retesting the value of 1 often precedes major price rallies. This pattern is repeating, indicating strong market support from mining activity.
Significant improvement potential
MVRV Z-ScoreA metric analyzing the relative value of Bitcoin’s market value, or the average cumulative value for all BTC, suggests that current values remain well below historical peak areas, outlining plenty of room for growth.
A A two-year rolling version of the MVRV Z-scoreThat adjusts for emerging market dynamics, also showing bullish potential. Even by this adjusted measure, Bitcoin is far from the peak levels of the previous cycle, leaving the door open for further price appreciation.
Related: We’re Revisiting the 2017 Bitcoin Bull Cycle
Durable feeling
The Bitcoin fear and greed index Currently there is a healthy and sustainable amount of greedy emotion, indicating greedy yet sustainable emotion. Historical data from the 2020-2021 bull cycle shows that bullish levels around 80-90 could persist for months, providing long-term bullish support. Only when prices reach extreme levels (95+) does the market typically experience significant corrections.
Network activity
The Active address sense indicator The network shows a slight decline in activity, suggesting that retail investors have yet to fully re-enter the market. However, this could be a positive sign, indicating untapped retail demand that could fuel the next phase of the rally.
Risk appetite shifts
There are signs of improvement in the traditional market perception. High yield credit Appetite continues to grow as the macroeconomic environment shifts to a more risk-averse outlook. Looking at corporate bonds that offer higher interest rates due to lower credit ratings than investment-grade bonds. Historically, there has been a strong correlation between Bitcoin’s performance and periods of heightened global risk appetite, often associated with bullish phases in Bitcoin’s price.
Related: What is the Bitcoin Price History Prediction for February 2025?
conclusion
Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics, market sentiment, and macro outlook all point to a continuation of the current bull market. While short-term volatility is always possible, the convergence of these indicators indicates that Bitcoin is well-positioned to reach and potentially surpass our current all-time high in the near future.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
