The oil price outlook is good Energy companies Because it is depressed, the average for Q4 is a long-term low and is likely to increase as the year progresses. This means that the energy company’s earnings outlook is likely very low and that an outperformance/upgrade cycle is imminent. Based on consensus data for energy sector earnings, the rebound in sentiment and stock prices could be strong.
The early-January consensus of 3.5% is 650 basis points below the peak in mid-2024, with Energy field NYSEARCA: XLE The weakest and most declining sector in the S&P 500 with respect to 2025 earnings growth.
The forecast for oil prices in 2025 is very low
The latest forecasts have a WTI average in the low-$70s and as low as $69 for the year. WTI The spot price is rising in the latest price action in , which confirms the price level from 2021. That floor is in the $69 to $72 range; Oil prices would have to go down to reach that level, and the odds are slim that it will.
GDP growth is solid and expected to remain solid, and are tailwinds In terms of administrative policy and economic stimulus that will lead to better-than-forecast outcomes, all support oil prices. US GDP is expected to remain stable A moderate 2.5% In 2025, while globally, led by emerging markets, GDP will grow faster to around 3.5% and possibly 4%.
The tailwinds of Trump administration policy and economic stimulus in China will also support energy demand. China adopted several policies intended to boost growth in late 2024, including plans for increased bond funding and wage increases for many of its workers. Bond funding will be used for long-term equipment upgrades and capital improvements, while increased wages will boost consumption, which is good news for oil prices.
Regarding Trump’s policies, demand will be boosted by increased production, but this will be enough to maintain the price floor in this case.
Regarding OPEC, the cartel is unlikely to increase its output in 2025 and will likely maintain production curbs to benefit from higher prices. It, too, is set for an upgrade cycle after cutting its demand outlook for 2025 late last year.
Exxon Mobil Corporation is a major player in diversified energy
Exxon Mobil stock forecast today
$128.74
Up 19.36%buy medium
Based on 19 analyst ratings
| High forecast | $147.00 |
|---|---|
| Average forecast | $128.74 |
| Less predictable | $105.00 |
Exxon Mobil NYSE: XOM is a leading player among diversified energy companies and the largest integrated energy company outside of China; It is also A high-yield stock Trade in at a deep discount S&P 500 NYSEARCA: Spy. This is forecast to generate a decline in revenue in 2025 but to expand margins, which is critical to the capital return outlook. Not only is Exxon’s revenue forecast very low, setting it to outperform in 2025, but its strong capital return is safe.
Exxon stock is up more than 3.6%, with share prices near $105. The payout is less than 50% of the 2025 earnings outlook, growing annually at a low-single-digit CAGR and compounded by share repurchases. The share count is up due to Pioneer’s all-stock acquisition at the end of FQ3 2024 but has been falling every quarter, and buyback activity is picking up. Buybacks in Q3 topped $13.8 billion, up 5.7% from last year, and are expected to remain strong in calendar 2025.
Exxon stock is trending higher in 2023 and 2024 despite a lack of traction. The upward trend is followed by price declines in mid-2022, early 2024, and early 2025, indicating growing support among long-term investors. This support is echoed in analysts’ sentiment data, which shows that a Moderate faith to a moderate buy rating and a $128.74 price target.
Consensus reported by MarketBeat is marginally lower over the past few months, but most targets issued in December 2024 range from $120 to $140, offering a 12% to 30% upside for investors. A move to $120 matches recent highs and positions the market to reach new highs.
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