In a newly issued investor noteOne of the oldest American investment banks is HC Wainwright & Co. — founded in 1868 — is predicting a significant rise in the price of Bitcoin. According to the note, the organization revised its previous bitcoin price target from $145,000 to $225,000 for the end of 2025, based on a confluence of historical trends, macroeconomic indicators, and emerging regulatory and institutional factors.
“We estimate that BTC will reach a cycle high of $225,000 by YE2025,” the firm said, citing both the market cycle and the prospect of a more supportive digital-asset regulatory landscape in the United States in 2025 under a new administration. Referring to
Why Bitcoin could be $225,000 by the end of the year
HC Wainwright’s analysis highlights several key forces driving Bitcoin’s growth trajectory. An important catalyst is the widespread availability of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US, a development that could unlock new waves of institutional capital. The firm also cited “acceleration in institutional investor and corporate adoption” as a major contributor to its bullish outlook.
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On top of that, investment bank models assume an overall market backdrop that improves in tandem with global liquidity and that any regulatory overhang will diminish. HC Wainwright carefully notes that forecasting is sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, particularly as measured by M2 money supplywhich has been trending downward since October.
Although predicting a high six-figure price by 2025, HC Wainwright admits that bitcoin’s path to $225,000 is unlikely to be a smooth ride. In the report, the bank cautioned: “During ~20-30% drawdown bull market are not uncommon […] We estimate that BTC may return to the mid-$70,000 range before resuming its upward trend in early 1Q25.”
They attribute these possible pullbacks to Bitcoin’s historical volatility and its correlation with global liquidity trends.
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If bitcoin reaches $225,000 per coin, HC Wainwright projects a total bitcoin market capitalization of about $4.5 trillion — about 25% of gold’s current $18 trillion market cap. This scenario translates to a 113% increase from current levels. However, the note adds an interesting view not yet included in its original forecast:
“Our new 2025 price target does not factor in the possibility of the US government officially adopting BTC as a Treasury reserve asset next year at the federal level. If implemented, we believe it is plausible that BTC may well exceed our base case price target.
The organization’s analysis also extends to the broader crypto market. Historically, of Bitcoin Dominance (its share of total crypto market cap) It tends to decline during market peaks, and it dipped into the low 40% range near the top of the last bull cycle in November 2021.
Looking ahead, HC Wainwright expects Bitcoin’s dominance to decline to 45% by the end of 2025, down from around 56% currently. Under that assumption, the firm sees the total crypto market swelling from $3.6 trillion today to nearly $10 trillion by year-end 2025.
HC Wainwright’s coverage universe of publicly traded bitcoin mining companies stands to benefit from anticipated price growth. “If our predictions are correct, there is potential for significant upward revisions to our coverage universe over the next year.”
At press time, BTC traded at $96,221.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
