I played poker professionally before I wrote about politics or modeled elections. What really fascinates me about gambling is the mindset that drives this behavior – a way of thinking that unites a group I call a “river.”
River is a huge ecosystem of like-minded people that includes everyone from low-stakes poker pros to crypto kings and VC billionaires. It is a way of thinking—analytical, abstract, competitive, adversarial—and a way of life. Most “Riverians” are not rich and powerful, but rich and powerful people are much more likely to be Riverians.
I call the following “The 13 Habits of Highly Effective Risk Takers.” Quantitative risk takers of the river and those who take physical risks—astronauts, deep-sea explorers, NFL players—share these traits. Based on my research, I am of the opinion that there is something hard in people who seek risk and fight it successfully. How much do you share with them?
Successful risk takers are cool under pressure
Keeping calm when other people lose their shit is a rare quality — and essential for a winning gambler. It doesn’t matter how well you perform in everyday situations—you’ll never reach the top of your craft if you choke when the pressure is on.
They have courage
In poker and sports betting, most players lose money. Being at the very top requires a careful balance. Overconfidence can be fatal in gambling, but playing poker against the best is not for the faint of heart.
They have strategic empathy
They put themselves in their opponent’s shoes – but don’t mistake this for emotional empathy. In psychological studies, there is a negative correlation between systematic thinking—what Riverians are skilled at—and empathic behavior. Strategic empathy comes into play a lot in poker – which is both a math game and a people game.
They are process-oriented, not outcome-oriented
They play the long game. “Don’t be results oriented” is a mantra that many poker players subscribe to. Yes, in the long run, results are what count, but one good thing about the river is that our compensation ultimately depends on objective measures.
They take the shot
They are clearly aware of the risks they are taking – and they are comfortable with failure. In an episode of the American version of the officeThe endearingly eccentric boss, Michael Scott, misquotes a quote from hockey player Wayne Gretzky: “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” So there is something to be said.
They have a lofty or magnanimous attitude
They hate mediocrity, and they know when to quit. The cardinal sin of poker is that most players catch them too often. There are three basic actions in poker: call, fold, raise. People press the call button a lot. They call because they want to gamble, but although players call when they should fold, they also call when they should raise.
They are ready
They make good intuitive decisions because they are well educated – not because they “wing it”. What’s wrong with private equity investor and inventor Viktor Vescovo? Top Gun: Maverick Tom Cruise insisted that you must improvise your way out of a hairy situation: “The best military ops are the ones that are so boring, where things go exactly as planned. No one was ever found to be in any danger,” he said. “You want to minimize the risks. While top gun Looked great on film, not that you’d try to accomplish that goal.
They have a high attention to detail
They understand that attention is a scarce resource. In poker, one of the unusual features of the game is that most of the time, you don’t have anything you have to do, exactly – there’s a lot of waiting. You need to carefully calibrate your mental bandwidth, conserving energy but being ready to act.
They are compatible
They are good generalists, seizing new opportunities and responding to new threats. I call this personality type the Fox. Consider the saying of the Greek poet Archilochus: “The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one great thing.” Foxes are on the lookout for opportunities, wary of happiness and highly bound. This is a habit with few exceptions. In particular, startup founders need to be laser focused on one big thing and be prepared to see it through for a decade or more.
They are good guessers
They are Bayesian, comfortable measuring their intuitions and working with incomplete information. Does the difference between 90 percent and 93 percent really matter?
They try to stand out, not fit in
Independence of mind and purpose are hallmarks of high achievers.
They are deliberately antagonistic
They have theories about why and when conventional wisdom is wrong. There is a difference between libertarianism and antisemitism. If I choose vanilla and you choose chocolate because you like chocolate more, you are free. If you choose chocolate because I chose vanilla, you’re doing the opposite. Riverians can be accused of being antagonistic when they are actually independent. If I do the traditional thing 99 percent of the time, and you do it 85 percent of the time, you look like a rebel by comparison – but in reality you’re still going with the flow.
They are not driven by money
They are not hermits, but poker players are different for two reasons. First, they are so fiercely competitive that money serves mostly as a way of keeping score; And second, gambling for such high stakes requires a certain insensitivity for them.
Adopted from On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, By Nate Silver.
